Explosive plays are the one place IU's defense has been vulnerable. It ranks 99th percentile nationally in success rate allowed (32.7%) and 90th in havoc (19.6%), but only 11th in explosiveness allowed. Minnesota is poorly built to exploit that. Its offense ranks 9th percentile in explosiveness and 18th in PPA (+0.04), and its rushing game is the biggest reason: the Gophers' explosiveness on runs is 0.72, against 1.41 on passes. The matchup favors IU.

Minnesota's defense is the stronger unit. It creates havoc on 21.7% of snaps, 96th percentile nationally, and ranks 80th percentile in PPA allowed. IU's offense rates well against that, at 92nd percentile in PPA (+0.30) and 85th in avoiding havoc (12.1%), but it comes off a 13-point game against Michigan that dropped its season PPA from +0.35. Whether the offense rebounds against a disruptive front is the question.

Minnesota is 5-2 and 4-1 over its last five, with three of those wins coming by 3, 6 and 3 points (27-24 at Washington, 20-14 over Michigan, 13-10 over Iowa). Its only loss in that stretch was 13-41 at Purdue, and the Gophers have averaged 22.8 points scored and 19.2 allowed over those five games. IU's last three have been one-score games as well: a 20-17 win at Nebraska, a 19-15 loss to Ohio State and a 13-6 overtime win at Michigan. Expect another close one.