OCT 17 · 12:00 PM
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
ALL COMPLETED GAMES THIS SEASON
Two unbeaten Big Ten teams, two elite defenses, and a game likely to be decided by a handful of snaps.
SP+1 ranks Ohio State No. 1 and Indiana No. 5 in the country, separated by just 2.8 points. Despite what the media has suggested, both teams have faced two opponents ranked in SP+'s top 25. Nothing about this matchup points to a blowout in either direction.
Both defenses create havoc2 on more than a fifth of their snaps, with Indiana at 23.0% and Ohio State at 23.1%. Both rates rank in the top two percent of FBS. We saw this last week against Nebraska: when strengths collide, games are decided at the margins. One soft spot in coverage, one third-and-long conversion, or one turnover that never happens can make all the difference. This preview focuses on finding those edges for Indiana.
Ohio State's run defense is not a weakness by national standards. It allows a 39.5% success rate1, ranking 53rd among 138 FBS teams and sitting just below the national average of 40.6%. The Buckeyes are also consistent across the formation, allowing success rates between 39.5% and 40.6% across every running lane. There is no single gap to target. Against the pass, the same defense allows just a 30.3% success rate.
For Indiana, the run game is not about breaking Ohio State. It is about staying on schedule. Indiana runs at a 46.2% success rate, with its best results coming to the left behind All-American Carter Smith. Every successful early-down run helps keep Josh Hoover out of the long-yardage situations where Ohio State's secondary does its best work.
The other half of this battle favors Indiana. Ohio State runs 55.3% of its carries up the middle, directly at an Indiana interior that allows just a 28.4% success rate. Overall, Indiana allows a 29.1% success rate on the ground, 5th-best nationally.
Above the line: success rate the defense allows in that lane. Below: the offense's own. Stronger fill = higher success rate. Tap a lane for detail; click to pin its plays.
Hover or tap a lane for detail. Click to pin its play list.
n = 207 Indiana carries, 168 faced by Ohio State. Kneel-downs excluded.
Season to date: Indiana 6 games, Ohio State 6 games. Lanes, zones, and havoc from CFBD advanced box scores; play lists and targets parsed from play-by-play.
Ohio State's pass defense is the best unit in this game. It allows a 30.3% success rate on throws, while its secondary creates havoc on 11.4% of snaps, nearly matching its front seven at 11.7%. Deep shots have been largely ineffective: opponents have thrown deep 21 times and succeeded on just 14.3% of those attempts. The one area where offenses have found more consistent success is short throws to the left, where Ohio State allows a 40.0% success rate compared with 23.4% to the right.
For Indiana, the numbers point toward patience. Hoover's offense already thrives on short throws, succeeding on 63.3% of short-left attempts and 51.1% of short-right attempts. Against this secondary, the safest yards are underneath. However, in a close game like this, Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh will need to find ways to create explosive passing plays against a unit that has surrendered very few.
Offense modes show a team's own throws; coverage modes show what its opponents completed against it. Stronger fill = higher success rate.
Hover or tap a zone for detail. Gray zones have fewer than 8 attempts.
n = 184 charted attempts, Ohio State cov. Kneel-downs excluded.
Season to date: Indiana 6 games, Ohio State 6 games. Lanes, zones, and havoc from CFBD advanced box scores; play lists and targets parsed from play-by-play.
Jeremiah Smith has 48 catches for 916 yards on 66 targets, averaging 13.9 yards every time the ball goes his way. No defense has consistently slowed him down this season. He is going to make catches. The challenge for IU is limiting the damage.
Ohio State's passing game runs through Smith. He has drawn 37.5% of the Buckeyes' targets and accounted for 45.2% of their receiving yards. The next most-targeted receiver, Devin McCuin, has 21 targets and 17 catches. That concentration cuts both ways for Indiana. The defense knows where the ball is likely going, but Smith keeps getting the ball because he wins even when everyone knows it is coming.
Indiana's coverage has been tested most on short throws to the right, with 76 attempts, more than any other zone. That is also where Jeremiah Smith accounts for 40.4% of Ohio State's short-right targets. Indiana allows completions in this area but limits the damage afterward, holding opponents to a 42.1% success rate and 4.0 yards after the catch per completion, compared with 5.8 over the middle.
The keys for IU's defense will be keeping everything in front of them, limiting yards after the catch, and forcing someone other than Jeremiah Smith to make plays.
One receiver at a time. One dot per target, placed by zone; bigger dot = more yards (capped). Filled = caught, outline = incomplete. TD catches sit in the end zone.
66 tgt · 48 rec · 916 yds · 11 TD · 37.5% of targets · 45.2% of rec yds
Hover or tap a dot for the play. Dashed band = Indiana YAC allowed per completion in that zone.
n = 66 targets. Kneel-downs excluded.
Season to date: Indiana 6 games, Ohio State 6 games. Lanes, zones, and havoc from CFBD advanced box scores; play lists and targets parsed from play-by-play.
Indiana's defense thrives on long third downs. Opponents have faced third-and-8 or longer on 45.5% of their third downs and converted just 17.5% of those attempts. The defensive front is a big reason why, generating an 18.2% front-seven havoc rate.
Ohio State, however, is built to overcome those situations. The Buckeyes convert 40.9% of their third-and-8-or-longer attempts, making them far more dangerous when they need to extend drives. Even after a failed first-down run, Ohio State's drives end in a punt, turnover, or missed field goal just 44.0% of the time, not far from its 38.2% baseline.
For Indiana to win this matchup, the defense must deliver on third down. Last week, Nebraska converted 53% of its third-down attempts against the Hoosiers. That won't cut it against Ohio State.
Third-down conversion rate by yards to go, offense's own rate vs the rate the defense allows. Hollow points and dashed segments: fewer than 8 attempts.
Hover or tap a point for its rate.
n = 71 Ohio State third downs, 88 faced by Indiana. Kneel-downs excluded.
Season to date: Indiana 6 games, Ohio State 6 games. Lanes, zones, and havoc from CFBD advanced box scores; play lists and targets parsed from play-by-play.
When two elite units face off, the game is often decided by the margins. Indiana has not turned the ball over through six games, while Ohio State's defense has made a living off mistakes, turning 7 takeaways into 38 points. If Indiana can keep its streak alive, it takes away a major source of Buckeye offense.
The rest of the numbers are tight. Indiana scores 4.59 points per red zone trip compared with Ohio State's 4.96, though the Buckeyes average more trips per game, 8.5 to Indiana's 7.3. Indiana also averages 29.8 penalty yards per game, compared with Ohio State's 39.7. In a game this close, settling for a field goal instead of a touchdown or giving the opponent an extra set of downs with a penalty could make all the difference.
Each step is points per game gained (green) or given up (red) outside normal drives: turnovers, finishing scoring trips vs the FBS average, net penalty yards, and starting field position. Tap a step for its math.
Indiana
Ohio State
Hover or tap a step for how it is computed.
n = Indiana and Ohio State, points per game. Kneel-downs excluded.
Season to date: Indiana 6 games, Ohio State 6 games. Lanes, zones, and havoc from CFBD advanced box scores; play lists and targets parsed from play-by-play. Scoring trips use CFBD's inside-the-40 definition, not the inside-the-20 red zone cited in the text.
MAKE SMITH EARN IT
< 13.9 yds/target
Hold him under his 13.9-yard average per target.
HOLD THE LINE ON THIRD AND LONG
< 30%
Hold Ohio State under 30% on third and long.
PROTECT THE BALL
0 turnovers
Zero turnovers for a seventh straight game.