SEP 25 · 8:00 PM
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
ALL COMPLETED GAMES THIS SEASON
Northwestern's offense leans on the run. Across 123 scrimmage plays it has run 60.2% of the time, and on first down that rises to 59.6% (57 plays). The issue is what those runs return. A play counts as successful when it gains 50% of the yards to go on first down, 70% on second down and all of it on third or fourth. By that standard, first-down runs have succeeded 41.2% of the time (34 plays), while first-down passes have succeeded 69.6% (23 plays). Each dot in the chart below is one play, filled if it was successful.
We will see early whether Northwestern is able to run the ball. Indiana has allowed a 25.6% success rate on first-down runs (43 plays), against the 41.2% Northwestern has produced. If Northwestern stays committed to the run, it is testing the strongest part of Indiana's front. The pass is the more likely route to early success, but Indiana's defense has allowed a 31.8% success rate on first-down passes (22 plays), well below the 69.6% Northwestern's offense has posted (23 plays).
One dot per play, successes first. Filled dot = successful play, hollow = not. Right: success rate and plays.
n = 122 plays on downs 1-3. Kneel-downs excluded.
NW: 2 games, 1 vs FCS. IU: 3 games, 1 vs FCS.
Just 3 of the 24 drives Northwestern has faced have ended in a three-and-out (12.5%), and the Wildcats have recorded just 3 sacks. Despite the limited disruption to opposing quarterbacks, Northwestern has still produced an 18% havoc rate, along with 3 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries. Each of those events is represented by a red square below, with each square representing one offensive drive. Green squares represent drives that ended in points.
Those sudden changes in possession and field position have directly created scoring opportunities for Northwestern. Nine of its 22 offensive drives began after a takeaway, fourth-down stop, or missed kick, and those drives produced 38 of its 75 points. On its other drives, Northwestern has averaged 2.85 points per drive, compared with 3.41 points per drive overall.
For Indiana, the biggest priority is straightforward: don't give Northwestern short fields. Indiana has scored on 21 of its 31 drives this season and has yet to end a drive with an interception or fumble. If Indiana can maintain that ball security, Northwestern's opportunities for short-field points should be limited, forcing its offense to produce more consistently over the length of the field.
One square per drive. Green = points, solid red = interception or fumble, red outline = ended on downs or a missed kick, gray = anything else.
Northwestern defense (opponent drives) · n = 24
Indiana offense · n = 31
n = 24 opponent drives against Northwestern, 31 Indiana offense drives. Kneel-downs excluded.
NW: 2 games, 1 vs FCS. IU: 3 games, 1 vs FCS.
Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles has completed 31 of 46 passes (67.4%) for 514 yards and 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions, averaging 11.2 yards per attempt. Sixteen of his attempts (34.8%) have gained 15 or more yards, while 10 (21.7%) have gained 20 or more. Protection has held up, with 3 sacks on 49 dropbacks (6.1%) and zero interceptions on 46 pass attempts. Griffin Wilde has emerged as the primary receiving threat, with 8 catches for 189 yards.
For Indiana, the question is whether the defense can take away the chunk plays that drive this offense. Indiana has allowed a gain of 15 or more yards on 10.0% of the 80 pass attempts it has faced. Third-down will also be another point of emphasis. Northwestern has a 40.0% success rate on third-down passes (15 plays), while Indiana's defense has allowed a 25.8% success rate (31 plays). With A.J. Harris listed as doubtful, it will be on Ryland Gandy and Jaylen Bell to slow down the Wildcats passing attack.
One bar per dropback in order, height = yards. Tap a bar for the play. Dashed line = 15 yards, axis capped at 40. Red = sack or turnover, small gray tick = incompletion.
vs South Dakota State · n = 26 dropbacks
Tap a bar to see the play.
vs Colorado · n = 23 dropbacks
Tap a bar to see the play.
n = 49 dropbacks, 2 games. Kneel-downs excluded.
NW: 2 games, 1 vs FCS. IU: 3 games, 1 vs FCS.
In two games, Northwestern has leaned heavily on the run, which plays directly into Indiana's strength. Indiana's defense has held opponents to a success rate of just 25.6% on first-down runs. When the early downs go Indiana's way, Northwestern is left to throw. Third-down passing is also where Indiana's defense has been at its best, with opponents posting a 25.8% success rate on 31 plays.
On the other side of the ball, Indiana's passing attack has been elite. Indiana has posted a 60.7% success rate on 61 pass plays and +0.86 PPA, or expected points added per play, with 0 turnovers. On first down, Indiana has a 68% success rate on 25 pass plays, compared with the 43% Northwestern's defense has allowed on 37 plays. Expect Shanahan to continue leveraging Hoover in the quick passing game to get IU's offense moving early.
Switch views to compare each offense with the other team's defense.
Success rate is the share of plays that gain 50% of the yards to go on first down, 70% on second down and all of it on third or fourth. Purple = Northwestern's offense. Red = what Indiana's defense has allowed. Faded rows have fewer than 10 plays on a side.
n = 122 Northwestern plays, 166 Indiana defensive plays. Kneel-downs excluded.
NW: 2 games, 1 vs FCS. IU: 3 games, 1 vs FCS.